McNeese St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	297.0
Current RPI:	297
Expected SOS:	312
Current SOS:	312
Current Record:	8-17
Expected Record:	8-17
Current Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-10
Current OOC Record:	0-7
Expected OOC Record:	0-7
Expected OOC RPI:	329
Expected OOC SOS:	117

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-17	297.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for McNeese St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Houston (18.0)	Amer	A	81-53	L	0%
11-17	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	83-52	L	0%
11-19	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	92-86	L	0%
11-28	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	89-78	L	0%
12-9	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	85-47	L	0%
12-14	North Carolina Central (279.0)	MEAC	A	77-71	L	0%
12-16	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	72-51	L	0%
12-28	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	85-62	W	100%
12-30	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	72-63	W	100%
1-3	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	79-74	L	0%
1-6	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	75-82	L	0%
1-10	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	85-80	L	0%
1-13	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	A	62-71	W	100%
1-20	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	81-86	W	100%
1-27	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	86-80	L	0%
1-30	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	H	57-67	L	0%
2-3	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	A	62-75	W	100%
2-8	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	95-99	L	0%
2-10	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	67-74	L	0%
2-14	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	72-76	W	100%
2-17	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	A	90-74	L	0%
2-21	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	79-96	L	0%
2-24	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	88-79	W	100%
2-28	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	82-70	L	0%
3-3	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	69-60	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

McNeese St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

McNeese St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against McNeese St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
McNeese St.	Slnd	26.31	26.31	36.04	36.04	-7.35	-7.35
New Orleans	Slnd	5.01	5.01	38.46	38.46	-1.16	-1.16
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.97	4.97	64.29	64.29	1.42	1.42
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.96	4.96	57.69	57.69	0.76	0.76
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.84	4.84	8.70	8.70	-4.00	-4.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	4.83	4.83	11.54	11.54	-3.72	-3.72
Lamar	Slnd	4.83	4.83	53.85	53.85	0.37	0.37
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	3.08	3.08	79.31	79.31	1.81	1.81
Central Arkansas	Slnd	3.05	3.05	51.61	51.61	0.10	0.10
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	3.04	3.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	3.01	3.01	28.00	28.00	-1.32	-1.32
Incarnate Word	Slnd	2.99	2.99	13.04	13.04	-2.21	-2.21
Abilene Christian	Slnd	2.86	2.86	42.31	42.31	-0.44	-0.44
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.21	2.21	80.00	80.00	1.33	1.33
Houston	Amer	2.11	2.11	78.12	78.12	1.19	1.19
Loyola Marymount	WCC	2.04	2.04	31.03	31.03	-0.77	-0.77
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.00	2.00	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	2.00	2.00	41.38	41.38	-0.34	-0.34
Pittsburgh	ACC	2.00	2.00	22.58	22.58	-1.10	-1.10
San Diego St.	MWC	2.00	2.00	66.67	66.67	0.67	0.67
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.24	0.24	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.24	0.24	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
SMU	Amer	0.21	0.21	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
UTEP	CUSA	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
UTSA	CUSA	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.17	0.17	88.24	88.24	0.13	0.13
UT Arlington	SB	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
LSU	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Fresno St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.08	-0.08
Cincinnati	Amer	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Wichita St.	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
FIU	CUSA	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Pacific	WCC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	Amer	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.04	0.04	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.04	0.04	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.04	0.04	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.04	0.04	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.04	0.04	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00